There has been a lot of talk about whether or not San Diego’s real estate market has hit rock bottom. Buyers and sellers alike are keeping a close eye on the market, weeding through speculations in search of an answer.
Unfortunately, there’s no way to know for sure. Real estate is a fluid market and therefore always changing. But if you look at the hard statistics you can see trends, and these trends show the market may be on its way to recovering.
You may be wondering how one assesses these trends. Here’s how: At the San Diego Association of REALTORS® (SDAR) we gather monthly statistics for the county that tell us the number of listings sold, the median price, average days on the market and total sales volume. We are then tasked with analyzing these numbers and reporting them to the public. These stats allow us to cut through all the speculation and the talk to really see what’s going on.
So what is going on, you ask? Well, January’s stats recently came out and the numbers do in fact indicate that we may be beginning an upward swing. Although total home sales slowed slightly since December of ‘08, the overall sold listings have increased dramatically since this time last year. In fact, sales for homes were up 68 percent and sales for attached units, such as condos and apartments, were up 76 percent.
When shown these facts, many people point to a decreased median price in order to hold onto the claim that the market it declining. However, the reality is that despite this month’s median sales price decrease, the overall dropping in median prices is beginning to slow. Between Dec of ‘08 and Jan of ‘09, the median price dropped only 6 percent for homes, and at $327,000 is still higher than many cities. In fact, at the end of last year, San Diego was one of the 10 cities with the highest median home price in California.
The fact that there’s a lot of activity in the market is always a good thing. It means that people are becoming more confident in buying in this market, a necessary step for real estate if we are hoping to see the market turn around.
Furthermore, the median price is not a completely accurate measurement of the market as a whole. The median is the midpoint where half the homes sold for less and half sold for more. A decreased median price simply indicates that lower price homes sold more often and is not a reflection of individual property values. In essence just because some people are buying less expensive homes doesn’t mean you won’t be able to sell yours at a competitive rate.
To that point, check out the list of places where the January ‘09 median home price is higher than January of ‘08:
Bonsall, Cardiff, La Jolla, Palomar Mountain, Descanzo, Dulzura, Pine Valley, Potrero, Coronado, San Carlos, Carmel Valley and parts of Oceanside and Spring Valley.
And we aren’t the only ones who are hopeful. It would seem that many aspiring REALTORS® have hope for a turnaround in the market as well. SDAR actually saw an increase in membership in 2008. In the last quarter of 2008 SDAR grew by approximately 100 members each month ending the year with more than 10,000 members. Consequently, SDAR is the largest trade association in all of San Diego County. The increase in membership can likely be attributed to the fact that this is a buyer’s market and the public is finding value in relying on certified experts for guidance.
So what is SDAR’s overall prediction for 2009? As an association we are remaining optimistic and will continue to resist the grim stigma being attached to the market. We have reason to believe this because we have numbers to prove it. Learn more at SDAR.com.
- Erik Weichelt, SDAR 2009 President (pictured above)
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